He who has not the spirit of his time, has all the misery of it: Voltaire An inconvenient truth: the flat yield curve This newsletter made the case last week that certain areas of the market were oversold and VXN, the volatility index for Nasdaq 100, was peaking. Other indicators looked to be at extreme levels too. …

“Brazil is the country of the future and will always be.” Charles de Gaulle This week, it was Bill Ackman’s turn to call the top. Such bold statements make me nervous, especially when they come from someone like Ackman. He’s a fantastic stock picker but his calls on the market…

Bloomberg reports that Zillow is suspending its I-Buying business for 2021. The schadenfreude is palpable. There are lot of “I told you so” comments going around. But perhaps the negativity is a little misplaced. I-buying is a market-making business and market-making businesses are hard to get right, especially when it…

Time for a Year End Equity Rally? I think so. It’s all setting up rather well: cheap equities, low interest rates and a great earnings season ahead. A leading indicator, the euro/yen cross, is supportive. And investor surveys are as bearish as they were in October 2020, just before the…

“Do not trade every day of every year.” Jesse Livermore Why hasn’t a movie about Jesse Livermore, the famous stock trader of the 1920s, been made btw? It seems like the perfect time for one to be released. DiCaprio should play the lead. He just needs spectacles and fake ears…

Barbara Corcoran, the former US Shark Tank celebrity and famous NYC real estate entrepreneur, often points out there are two types of people: Containers and Expanders. Containers are the people who fret the small stuff. They worry about details and like to have a plan. Expanders are the opposite. They…

In an age when strong female role models are celebrated, it is surprising how little attention is paid to Ida Tarbell. Ida took down a monopoly. Her actions led to the implementation of anti-trust laws in the US and the establishment of the Fair Trade Commission in 1914. She came…

When the black ships turned up and demanded that Japan open its borders in 1853, the ruling classes quickly embraced the slogan, “catch up, then overtake.” The powers-at-be in Japan knew they were behind the industrialized West and needed to play catch up. In the late 1940s, a similar singular…

“Subprime Attention Crisis”, Tim Hwang’s book about the digital advertising industry, goes on sale on the 13th October. Tim argues that the industry runs the risk of collapsing, and this would cause huge problems for the broader economy. It is an interesting thesis. The way the ad tech industry has…